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Speculators are back.

Oil prices have surged more than 50 percent since the beginning of this year, jumping from 30 U.S. dollars a barrel in the first quarter to currently above 70 dollars.

While the shift in the market sentiment and declining dollar have been much discussed, many believe that it is the reallocation of funds flowing into the commodities that has driven the price to rise far off fundamentals.

“The fundamentals do not support the recent rally in the oil market,” Raymond Carbone, president of Paramount Options, told Xinhua.

“We are at 18-year inventory highs, and there is no empirical data showing demand is being strong. In fact, demand is lower this year than this time last year,” said Carbone.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) decided to increase its forecast for this year’s global daily oil demand to 8.33 million barrels, 120,000 barrels more than its May prediction.

That was its first upward readjustment in 10 months, and the market reacted with a year-high record price of above 73 dollars a barrel.

However, the IEA still predicted that the total demand this year will drop by 2.9 percent from last year; and in the United States, the world’s top oil consumer, the demand will see a decrease of 4.8 percent.

The supply side does not look bullish either, at least in the short term. OPEC has decided to cut oil production by a total of 4.2 million barrels since last September, suggesting sufficient room in the spare capacity.

Meanwhile, despite a larger-than-expected drop in the crude inventory as shown in the latest U.S. Energy Department weekly report, the crude stockpiles are still standing at the highest level in 18 years.

“We are certainly well-supplied with oil. But the market is focusing on the resurgence of demand in the future (once the economy recovers) and that has really overwhelmed the fundamental picture,” Carbone said.

“I think there is a reentry into the market of the speculative funds. I think we are seeing speculation in commodities in general, and oil is included in that,” Carbone said.

According to a report by Merrill Lynch and Bank of America, commodity prices rallied in May as central banks continued to pump liquidity into the global economy, with most sectors showing strong performance.

Shanquan Li, vice president of the Global Equity Group in Oppenheimer Funds, said he had suggested that investors buy oil futures when the price was still around 40 dollars.

He told Xinhua that 40-dollar-per-barrel oil is the result of market overreaction just as the price topped 120 dollars, noting that in the long term, as the oil price rises with the economic recovery, and the gap between a rising demand and a limited supply will persist.

“For oil investors, 40 or 50 dollars a barrel is relatively cheap in the long term,” he said.

“There will be volatility in the prices given the unclear prospect of the U.S. economic turnaround, but the trend of oil prices is going upward,” he said.

Inflation fear is another force that has driven funds into the commodities.

Investors are worried that the trillions of dollars Washington is spending on bailouts and other initiatives will weaken the dollar and boost inflation over the next few years, while such dollar-denominated commodities as oil have historically been good hedges against inflation since their prices usually go up when the dollar weakens.

“Oil may be overbought right now, but there is the potential to see heavy inflation,” said Steven Stahler, president of financial advisory firm Stahler Group in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Analysts believe that the speculative funds coming into the oil market this year are probably the same players as last year.

“These are the long term massive players. They want to hedge against inflation and declining dollar. And they see commodities as an asset class that they must involve in to hedge against risk,” Carbone said.

Oil market has been following the boom-bust-boom cycles, and last year oil’s free-fall plunge following a rally into 147 dollars was a perfect example.

Now, with the weak dollar, market sentiment that is far off fundamentals and speculative funds–all were the factors that triggered last year’s dramatic move–in place, it is wise to be alert to a repeat of the “roller coaster.”

The Chinese government on Tuesday donated medical equipment worth 300,000 U. S. dollars to Uganda boost the East African country’s effort to promote reproductive health.

“I hope it will play a positive role,” said Wang Zeshan, charge d’affaires at the Chinese Embassy while handing over the equipment to Uganda’s Health Minister Stephen Malinga.

Malinga said though maternal and infant mortality and morbidity is on a declining trend, it is still unacceptably high.

According to Ministry of Health statistics, the country’s maternal mortality rate decreased from 505 per 100,000 births in 2001 to 435 per 100,000 in 2006 and infant mortality from 156 per 1,000 in 2001 to 136 in 2006.

Malinga said reproductive health is one of the priority areas that need intervention.

This donation of diagnostic, imaging and laboratory equipment will help improve the delivery of services to the people of Uganda, he said.

China has given several donations to Uganda including a 100-bedgeneral hospital whose construction is scheduled to start in August.

Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority on Monday urged banks and consumers to boost Internet banking security due to growing sophistication in fraud techniques.

The authority issued a circular on Monday requiring authorized institutions to notify their customers immediately via SMS after they complete an online high-risk transaction. It also urged customers to verify the transaction details and notify their bank immediately if they discover any unauthorized transactions.

Some fraudsters infected customers’ computers with Trojan horse programs to hijack their Internet banking particulars, including one-time passwords for two-factor authentication, and used them to conduct high-risk e-banking transactions like transferring funds to an unregistered third-party account, the authority said.

It said e-banking services with two-factor authentication are safe to use, as long as both customers and banks take proper security precautions.

The authority said it will work with the industry and police to monitor the latest technological developments and trends in Internet banking fraud, and boost consumer education.

The year-long Community Program against Youth Drug Abuse will be launched across Hong Kong from Saturday to keep young people away from drugs.

“The government has allocated 9 million HK dollars ( 1.2 million U.S. dollars) for the scheme,” said Tsang Tak-sing, secretary for Home Affairs of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government, on Friday.

The program will target young abusers and those at risk of becoming users, and it will be implemented by the 18 District Offices with help from the Social Welfare Department.

The program includes contacting young people through an outreach network of non-governmental organizations. Activities on offer will include ball games and rock climbing, as well as vocational training courses like beauty care, sales and hairdressing.

“The anti-drug campaign is imperative. It calls for a concerted effort from all sectors of the community and every citizen to help young people keep away from drugs by showing care and love to them, ” Tsang said.

Serious drug cases in Hong Kong rose 2 percent to 1,529 in the first half of the year, according to Hong Kong Police.

There is a rising trend in drug cases on school campuses, said the police, pledging to focus on combating drugs in the second half of the year, particularly youth drug abuse.

Tokyo stocks closed mixed Friday as investors refrained from active buying and sold gainers before the weekend ahead of key U.S. jobs data.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Average advanced 24.00 points, or 0.23 percent, to 10,412.09.

The broader Topix index dipped 0.75 point, or 0.08 percent, to 956.76.

Gainers were led by textiles, pulp and paper, and electrical machinery issues while consumer finance, mining and precision machinery issues were among the decliners.

“Investors who started the day by selling stock futures, expecting a slow trading day ahead of key U.S. jobs data, bought them back going into the close,” Mitsuo Shimizu, deputy general manager of the sales promoting department at Cosmo Securities, was quoted as saying.

“Generally speaking, the upward trend will likely continue, backed by signs of a steady recovery in the economy, though I expect some pauses along the way.”

Synthetic fiber maker Toray Industries surged 7.3 percent to 515 yen after raising its first-half operating forecast due to deeper cost cuts.

Printer maker Konica Minolta plunged 10.1 percent to 891 yen. For the three months to June, the company recorded an operating loss of 589 million yen, compared with a 24.5 billion yen profit a year earlier.

On the First Section, declining issues outnumbered advancing issues 903 to 624, with 163 others remaining unchanged.

Value leader Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group shed 50 yen, or over 1 percent, to 3,970 yen while volume leader Mizuho Financial Group lost 1 yen, or about half a percent, to 225 yen.

Trading volume on the main section contracted to 1,896.83 million shares from 1,971.80 million Thursday.

The TSE’s Second Section index dropped 8.46 points, or 0.38 percent, to 2,247.10 on a volume of 47.48 million shares.

On the Osaka Securities Exchange, the near-term September Nikkei 225 index futures contract rose 20 points to 10,420.

Nintendo said Monday that it is updating DSi software to allow users to upload pictures from the camera-equipped handheld videogame devices to hot social-networking website Facebook.

The Facebook photo-sharing feature is to be live after 5:00 pm in California (0000 GMT Tuesday) and usable with a free system update to be available online.

“Facebook and Nintendo DSi build on the trend of personalization that is so important to consumers,” Nintendo of America executive vice president of sales and marketing Cammie Dunaway said in a statement.

“We’re giving people the tools to express themselves in creative new ways and show off the results to their friends and family on Facebook.”

DSi users will be able to tap an on-screen icon to send photos from DSi camera albums to Facebook profile pages by means of wireless broadband Internet connections, according to Nintendo.

The Japanese videogame titan has sold more than 1.7 million DSi devices in the United States since the third-generation of the game system was launched here in April, according to figures from industry-tracker NPD Group.

Nintendo reported last week that sales of its Wii consoles have plunged, triggering a sharp drop in recent-quarter profits after years of spectacular growth.

The company had been riding high in recent years after trumping rivals Sony and Microsoft in the battle for dominance of the multi-billion dollar home videogame industry with its family-friendly Wii.

But the console’s worldwide appeal seems to be fading: Wii sales more than halved to 2.23 million units in April-June from 5.17 million a year ago.

Demand for handheld consoles also cooled, with sales of the DS line falling to 5.97 million units from 6.94 million.

Together with a stronger yen, the weak demand pushed Nintendo’s net profit down 60.6 percent in the quarter from a year earlier to 42.32 billion yen (445 million dollars), dousing hopes that the industry would be recession-proof.

Nintendo, which started out in 1989 making playing cards and brought the world Mario and Donkey Kong, has long dominated the market for handheld machines with its Game Boy and DS series.

Security forces arrested 17 militants in ongoing search and clearance operation in northwest Pakistan during the last 24 hours, and the trend of terrorists’ surrendering voluntarily is picking up, an army press release said Tuesday.

Security forces conducted search and clearance operation in various areas of Swat and Malakand in North West Frontier Province with the support of local tribal militia.

Seventeen militants were arrested and several ground tunnels were destroyed, said the daily update of Inter Services Public Relations.

During search operation in Dahrah and Nagwa in Swat, three militants’ houses were demolished and a number of weapons were recovered.

In adjoining Buner, security forces carried out search and clearance and demolished houses of four militant’s commanders in village Koga near Ambela.

Relief activities were continued and so far 240,400 cash cards have been distributed amongst the internally displaced persons of Malakand.

Over 1,600 militants have been killed since Pakistani security forces launched the military operation against Taliban militants late April after militants in early April entered the Buner district from the neighboring Swat district and refused to vacate the area despite their pledge to do so.

Malaysia’s central bank announced further reduction of the country’s prime rate here on Tuesday in a bid to boost domestic spending and back up its economy.

The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) was lowered by 50 basis points to 2.00 percent, with the ceiling and floor rates of the OPR reduced to 2.25 percent and 1.75 percent respectively, effective on March 1 this year.

The Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) was also adjusted downwards from 2 percent to 1 percent to further reduce the cost of intermediation.

“The international economic and financial environment has deteriorated sharply in the recent quarter,” Bank Negara Malaysia said in a statement here.

“The major advanced economies are experiencing a deepening economic contraction, while the regional economies are experiencing a rapid slowdown,” the central bank said.

“The Malaysian economy has been adversely impacted by these global developments. Exports and industrial production have declined steeply, while private investment activities have slowed down in recent months as businesses scaled back their spending.”

“With inflation on a moderating trend, the task of macroeconomic policy is to support domestic demand until conditions in the global economy show signs of normalization.”

The bank stressed that it would introduce further measures to ensure continuous access to credit and minimize the impact of the economic downturn on specific affected groups.

Malaysia’s central bank lowered its OPR from 3.25 percent to 2.00 percent on Feb. 1 this year to provide a favorable financial environment for the country’s economy.

Despite the global economic crisis, prospects for the film and entertainment industry are bright, and international entertainment industry eyes on the opportunities in Chinese mainland market of greatest potential, according to a survey released in Hong Kong on Thursday.

A total of 330 entertainment industry exhibitors and buyers from around the world were interviewed face to face about the global market and industry trends during the Hong Kong International Film and TV Market (FILMART) held in Hong Kong from Monday to Thursday.

More than 60 percent of the respondents said overall business results over the past 12 months were “very good” or “quite good”. Looking at the industry with the greatest growth prospects, respondents ranked TV first, followed by digital entertainment and film.

Among the respondents, 95 percent said co-productions would continue as a hot trend and 81 percent agreed that cross-media convergence is expected to bring in more business opportunities.

A total of 59 percent of the respondents said the Chinese mainland would be the market of greatest potential for the overall entertainment industry. As much as 67 percent said the TV industry has good prospects in the Chinese mainland, followed by the digital entertainment industry and the film industry.

Asked about the next three years’ business plan, 56 percent of the respondents ranked the Chinese mainland market as the most popular.

Respondents also regard Hong Kong as the best platform for reaching the Chinese mainland and other Asian markets, with 74 percent agreeing that Hong Kong is a major Asian content production, distribution, trading and film financing center.

Hong Kong’s advantages lie in its creative talent, a strong distribution network in Asia, the world-class industry events and protection of intellectual property. Another core driver is CEPA, the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement with the Chinese mainland, which gives Hong Kong greater access to the Chinese mainland market, according to the survey.

Carrying extra weight earlier in life increases the risk of developing problems with mobility in old age, even if the weight is eventually lost, according to a new research by the Sticht Center on Aging at Wake Forest University School of Medicine.

The study, funded by the National Institute on Aging and the Wake Forest University Claude D. Pepper Older Americans Independence Center, will appear in the April 15 issue of the American Journal of Epidemiology.

“In both men and women, being overweight or obese put them at greater risk of developing mobility limitations in old age, and the longer they had been overweight or obese, the greater the risk,” said lead investigator Denise Houston, an assistant professor of gerontology at the School of Medicine and an expert on aging and nutrition. “We also found that, if you were of normal weight in old age but had previously been overweight or obese, you were at greater risk for mobility limitations.”

Houston added that dropping weight later in life can lead to problems with mobility because weight loss later in life is usually involuntary and the result of an underlying chronic condition.

The study is based on data collected in the Health, Aging and Body Composition study, which enrolled Medicare recipients in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Memphis, Tennessee, between April 1997 and June 1998. Participants had to be well-functioning, living in the community, and free of life-threatening illness.

The researchers defined mobility limitation as difficulty walking a quarter-mile or climbing 10 steps. They analyzed information from 2,845 participants who were on average 74 years old. Participants reported no problems with mobility at the beginning of the study. Information on new mobility limitations was collected every six months over seven years of follow-up.

Using participants’ body mass index (BMI), a measurement equal to a person’s weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared, at different age intervals, the researchers found that women who were overweight or obese (BMI of 25 or greater) from their mid-20s to their 70s were nearly three times more likely to develop mobility limitations than women who were normal weight throughout.

The risk for men was slightly less — they were about 1.6 times more likely to develop mobility limitations, according to the study.

The study also found that women who were obese (BMI of 30 or greater) at age 50, but not in their 70s, were 2.7 times more likely to develop mobility limitations compared to women who were not obese throughout. Men who were obese at 50, but not in their 70s, were 1.8 times more likely to develop mobility limitations than men who never carried the extra weight.

Carrying extra weight can strain joints, hinder exercise and lead to chronic conditions, such as diabetes, arthritis and heart disease, that are directly related to the development of mobility limitations, Houston said.

The results are significant, Houston added, because the elderly population in the United States is growing, and is expected to double by the year 2030 to about 20 percent.

“Over the past couple of decades there has been a trend towards declining rates of physical disability in older adults,” Houston said. “However, the dramatic increase in overweight and obesity in the United States may reverse these declines and may lead to an increase in physical disability among future generations of older adults. The data suggest that interventions to prevent overweight and obesity in young and middle-aged adults may be useful in preventing or delaying the onset of mobility limitations later in life.”